There’s this story about the old man who invented chess. I’m sure I have it all wrong. But it’s still a good story:

The old man brings his chessboard to the king and explains the new game. The king is so impressed that he asks the old man what he wants as a gift. The old man says he’s a simple man from the country, and he would just like some rice.

“How much rice would you like?” the king asks.

The old man appears to contemplate this. Then he responds, “How about we use my game to determine the amount?” He puts a single grain of rice on the first square of the chessboard. Then he puts two grains on the second square. And four grains on the third square. “We double the number of grains on each square until we reach the end of the board.”

The king laughs, shakes his head in disbelief, and agrees with a stamp of his signet ring. He has his servants start placing the grain on the chessboard. But soon he stops laughing.

By the time they reach the 16th square, they’re up to a large bag of rice. By the time they reach the 32nd square, it’s as much rice as a 20-acre field produces in a year.

By the 64th square, it’s far more rice than has been produced, ever, in the history of mankind.

The old man becomes king.

We are on the first few squares of the chessboard. It may only look like a few grains of rice, but we have so much ahead of us.

Forecasting the Future of Chatbots

I’ve been reading headlines like “The Chatbot Revolution Is on Hold” and “5 reasons not to believe the chatbot hype”. USAToday asks, “Remember chatbots?” while Econsultancy wonders, “What went wrong?”

Well let me tell you what went wrong: nothing.

Here’s the thing: even when growth is explosive, nothing really seems to happen in the first few years. Bill Gates wrote in The Road Ahead:

We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don’t let yourself be lulled into inaction.

How many more chatbots are there today compared with a year ago? Three times as many? Ten times as many? Let’s say it’s three times. How many chatbots are there right now? Let’s call it 100,000 (the number Facebook Messenger announced in April). Where will this lead us?

At this rate, there will be over 20 million chatbots in 5 years. Is that a reasonable projection? Let’s compare that with the growth in the number of websites from the early days of the internet, 1996–2001.

The growth in websites eventually sloped off, but it continued steadily. Today there are over 1.2 billion websites.

My point, of course, is that we are at the very beginning of years of explosive growth. We are on the first few squares of the chessboard. It may only look like a few grains of rice, but we have so much ahead of us.

Chatbots, and by extension, voicebots, are setting applications free, and the implications are astounding. Applications are no longer bound by a GUI — you can chat to them, you can speak to them. Applications are no longer bound by a particular channel—you can access them via messaging app, via web browser, via voice-controlled speaker.

In my space, chatbots for corporate communications, we will soon see employees seamlessly moving from their phones to their cars to their laptops, from chatting to speaking to clicking, to do their research, receive their news, and provide their input.

So if you’re an innovator who’s thrilled about the potential of chatbots, but feel like no one’s listening, don’t get disheartened. This is normal for transformational technology. In a few years, no one will be laughing, and who knows? You may become the chatbot king.

Interested in learning how to build an event chatbot—a chatbot for conferences, town halls or summits? Watch my webinar, How to Build an Event Chatbot.